Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Bryce Hoffman writes about leadership, strategy, and decision making. The base rate fallacy is a cognitive bias that causes us to ...

When we try to follow the shifting path of the pandemic, it's easy to get lost in the numbers. Not all of us are statisticians. Amanda Aronczyk of NPR's Planet Money podcast brings us a fallacy to ...

In simple terms, a logical fallacy is a flaw in reasoning that weakens your argument; you’ve drawn a conclusion based on illogical, irrelevant, deceptive, or otherwise faulty evidence. You’re probably ...